Vijay Anand | The Startup Guy.

Forecasting Startup Success

Posted on: June 11, 2007

I came to know yesterday that there is a new branch of research – titled Entrepreneurship Research – that has opened up with a fair bit of active contributions, in an effort to identify all the elements that make an entrepreneur successful and they are hoping that they could come up with a model that would help give some directions as to the future of that startup.

One of the elements that they use is the factor of people that you know of. I suppose, “whom you know matters” is pretty much the first and foremost element to any business.

I am still and very skeptical about it. If success and the direction of a startup could be identified, then bootstrapping a company comes under “calculated risk”, something i doubt that it will ever fit the profile of. And if that should ever happen, the lines between Venture Capital and Private Equity start to blur quite drastically because you have shifted your risk to a much smaller timeline and everything in the life cycle of a company, shifts to the right a bit.

All that said, this is my understanding and analogy. When you have a child, it is quite easy to spot if the child is smart, a little slow, or extra ordinary. The level of activity should give some predictions as to some expectations on the child, and if the child will grow up strong and healthy. The best we can do with a startup is precisely that. The models, to figure out what a startup will turn into, or how big it will grow depends on a lot of factors along the way, just as a child’s journey to adulthood has quite a few markers to cross, people to meet, choices to choose from and factors to be influenced and be defined by.

That said, I spoke to one of the researchers who has chosen to work on this field, and he mentioned that we are still very much in the nascent stage and it might be almost be the next century when we start looking at some results and applications for this research. Perhaps our next generations will write about it someday.

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1 Response to "Forecasting Startup Success"

[…] Vijay Anand, the Key Organizer of introduced each segment and each startup in the segment. […]

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